More Frequent, Less Strong Storms...
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'TROPICAL STORMS TO BE MORE INTENSE BUT LESS FREQUENT'
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PARIS - Tropical cyclones may become less frequent this century but pack a stronger punch as a result of global warming, a paper published yesterday said.
The study is an overview of work into one of the scariest yet also one of the least understood aspects of climate change.
Known in eastern Asia as typhoons, tropical storms are driven by the raw fuel of warm seas, which raises the question about what may happen when temperatures rise as a result of greenhouse gases.
Mr Tom Knutson and colleagues from the United Nations' World Meteorological Organisation looked at peer-reviewed investigations that have appeared over the past four years, when the issue began to hit the headlines.
Their benchmark for warming is the "A1B" scenario, a middle-of-the-road computer simulation which predicts a global average surface temperature rise of 2.8C over the 21st century.
"It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged," says the paper.
But storms could have more powerful winds - an increase of between 2 and 11 per cent - and dump more water, it warns. Rainfall could increase by 20 per cent within 100 kilometres of the eye of the storm.
In addition, some storm basins will "more likely than not" see a big increase in the frequency of high-impact storms. AFP
From TODAY, Monday, 22-Feb-2010
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